When Israel and Iran rattle sabres, I plead, 'I want my Sharon persimmons!'

There is a saying attributed to Clemenceau, "War is too important to leave to the generals". That's because the military was seen as being too inept, or too gung-ho in wanting to escalate war objectives, and the politicians had to rein them in (think of US President Truman having to sack General MacArthur during the 1950s Korean War after the Chinese stepped into the breach).

The nuclear age kind of messed things up when contemplating war, as people -- including the military and the scientists -- began to understand more about the paradox of nuclear deterrence. They came to realise that two sides that have nuclear weapons are basically deterred from using them on each other.

That made a pre-emptive strike tempting (for the already nuclear-armed side) if the other side is poised to, but has yet to, acquire a nuclear war-fighting capability (for simplicity, I'll ignore this contradiction in terms here).

This tipping-point moment is apparently the reason why Israeli politicians are publicly telling the world Israel may have to carry out pre-emptive attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities -- with or without American acquiescence -- before Iran enters a "zone of immunity" (that's when Teheran acquires a nuclear capability, which the Israeli politicians claim is pretty soon).

Bear in mind too that it's an American presidential election year, and Israel has friends among American politicians and lobbyists, particularly those on the political Right.

Iranian politicians continue to insist that the country's nuclear programme is for peaceful purposes. (If you believe that, you've gotta start reading the disclaimer preamble in our local Noose TV series.)

But Iran may be playing a game with Israel, baiting it with "come and hit me if you dare" provocations. Still, Iran, blessed with oil and holding strategic sway over the Strait of Hormuz but vulnerable to economic sanctions, holds the key to the first steps in diffusing tensions.

So, is an international crisis building up, and will the Israelis move beyond sabre-rattling? Will oil prices shoot up? Will Israeli Sharon-brand persimmons become scarce if Israel is forced into a prolonged war footing (I hate the alternative... those yucky Korean varieties)? Will Iranian dates disappear from our supermarket shelves too?

The current crisis may pass. The military on all sides have no choice but to draw up warfighting plans. But it is the politicians who are making the unnerving noises. Today, war may be too important to leave to the politicians.

For some insightful recent analyses, see:

David Ignatius, "Is Israel preparing to attack Iran?"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/is-israel-preparing-to-attack-iran/2012/02/02/gIQANjfTkQ_story.html

Fareed Zakaria, "How history lessons could deter Iranian aggression"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/history-could-be-a-deterrent-to-iranian-aggression/2012/02/15/gIQA6UVcGR_story.html

John Mueller, "False nuclear fears cloud judgment on Iran"
http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC120221-0000002/False-nuclear-fears-cloud-judgment-on-Iran

New York Times, "Iran may be just out of reach"
http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC120221-0000053/Iran-may-be-just-out-of-reach