There is no lack of "analysis to the point of paralysis" by commentators on how China's rise -- ceteris paribus -- to eventually become a full-fledged great power will affect global and regional politics. The problem with many of these pundits is that they do not stick with one overriding framework about states' behaviour in their arguments.
This is why I find the assessments by Yuriko Koike, a former Japanese Defence Minister, refreshing. She sticks with Realist assumptions in her commentaries on the Asia-Pacific region. Her recent Project Syndicate piece, "It's kowtow or cooperate in Asia", and reproduced in TODAY (Nov 26), is worth a read, from either website :
http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-s-ambitions-and-asia-s-missing-security-architecture-by-yuriko-koike
http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC121126-0000009/Its-kowtow-or-cooperate-in-Asia
Here is an extract:
International orders emerge either by consensus or through force. The great task for Mr Obama, incoming Chinese President Xi Jinping, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the new Japanese and South Korean leaders who will come to power following elections in December, and all ASEAN members is to ensure that consensus prevails in Asia without stoking China's greatest strategic fear - encirclement.
As everyone in Asia should recognise, whenever communist China has deemed that it faced such a threat, it has resorted to war - in Korea in 1950, India in 1962, the Soviet Union in 1969 and Vietnam in 1979.
But fear of provoking China should not stop Asia's leaders from seeking a regional security consensus, such as the proposed code of conduct for disputes in the South China Sea. Only the weakest of Asian states will submit willingly to Chinese hegemony - or, for that matter, to a Cold War-style US-led containment strategy.
Indeed, the idea that Asian countries must choose between a Chinese or American future is false. But can Asia's fear of hegemony and China's fear of military encirclement be reconciled?
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News-wise, the world has now learnt that China has started practising combat aircraft landings and take-offs from its sole aircraft carrier, the Liaoning. Here's TODAY's story (Nov 26):
http://www.todayonline.com/World/China/EDC121126-0000018/China-makes-first-landing-on-aircraft-carrier
Several things should be noted:
* The Liaoning, an old Soviet-era aircraft carrier, is not a supercarrier which can carry about 80 aircraft from the workhorse transporter to the eye-in-the-sky early warning and control planes to the multi-role fighter jets. The US has about a dozen of this class of "flat-tops".
* The J-15 fighter jet that carried out the landings and take-offs, is a navalised copy of the Russian Sukhoi Su-33. One must assume that the Chinese have sorted out any kinks associated with the navalisation project, and that this rather heavy fighter's engines are super-reliable. Under operational conditions, even in peacetime, there has to be continual practice sorties day in day out, and in all weather conditions.
* Notably, the Chinese have resorted to a "ski ramp" for the J-15's take-offs. This is less efficient than the Americans' method -- steam catapult-assisted take-offs.
* There is just one Chinese carrier now; it will have to be taken off sea duty for maintenance, repairs and refits. In all likelihood, it may just simply be a "test-bed". The Americans have the luxury of having, say, half their carrier fleet in some stages of not-at-sea status while the other half is in full operational mode.
* Finally, I am not sure if the carrier is still a navy's primary capital ship. A carrier has to be protected by its strike group; a time may come when a carrier strike group's "invincibilty" is called into question. The Liaoning's propulsion, moreover, is non-nuclear which means highly vulnerable oilers (ships that supply the fuel oil) have to be part of its strike group. To get into the supercarrier league, Chinese flat-tops have to go nuclear power.
It'll be interesting to see how China develops its carrier strike groups from scratch. But it won't be a matter of a few years. A decade or even more (much more?) is probably a decent bet, ceteris paribus, of course.
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Now for two items I'll rather happily put here. The first is the news that Psy -- Mr Gangnam Style -- is coming to Singapore. Here is insing.com's story:
http://news.insing.com/tabloid/meet-psy-in-singapore/id-08663f00
The second is: The Rolling Stones are 50 years old! And the group is celebrating with anniversary concerts, the first of which kicked off in London's O2 Arena on Sunday. Here's CNN's story:
http://edition.cnn.com/2012/11/26/showbiz/music/rolling-stones-anniversay-tour-rs/index.html
Apparently, the group left out from Sunday night's set list their hit song, Satisfaction. It's a shame.Well, I'm putting the YouTube video clip here (note: it's an early recording, when Jagger had more hair!):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyM-j_49nk0
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