In the emerging competition for global power and influence between the United States and China, tiny countries like Singapore will want to find ways and means to avoid being such fodder.
The stakes are high in the Asia-Pacific. The US and China will sometimes make love, ie cooperate; and sometimes make war -- unlikely to be in terms of military conflict but likely to be rivalry by other means, including asking regional countries "Can I count on you on this issue?".
As I indicated yesterday, a lot of the emerging dynamic in Southeast Asia will depend on whether the US remains a "stayer" in this part of the Asia-Pacific. No one doubts China's increasing shadow over Southeast Asia.
The South China Sea issue encapsulates one dilemma facing regional countries -- how to deal with the Chinese dragon without appeasing it or causing it to breathe fire. That's easier said than done because several regional countries are themselves rival claimants.
Hence the ASEAN countries have had a dismal record of standing united on the South China Sea issue. But something unusual happened last Saturday: At the East Asia Summit in Bali, Indonesia, 15 of the 18 member countries -- including all the ASEAN states except Cambodia and Myanmar -- lock-stepped and put China on the defensive over its expansive claims to the disputed archipelago and its waterways.
China is unlikely to forget its diplomatic humiliation last Saturday. The New York Times reported the incident, and TODAY has published it (21 Nov, "How China's tune changed under pressure at the East Asia Summit", page 4). Here is the link:
http://www.todayonline.com/World/EDC111121-0000066/How-Chinas-tune-changed-under-pressure-at-the-East-Asia-Summit
Another must-read is an opinion piece in the New York Times by Chinese scholar Yan Xuetong, with the provocative headline "How China can defeat America". Do read it!
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/21/opinion/how-china-can-defeat-america.html
Here are Yan's concluding remarks from his article:
"Over the next decade, China's new leaders will be drawn from a generation that experienced the hardships of the Cultural Revolution. They are resolute and will most likely value political principles more than material benefits. These leaders must play a larger role on the world stage and offer more security protection and economic support to less powerful countries.
"This will mean competing with the United States politically, economically and technologically. Such competition may cause diplomatic tensions, but there is little danger of military clashes.
"That's because future Chinese-American competition will differ from that between the United States and the Soviet Union during the cold war. Neither China nor America needs proxy wars to protect its strategic interests or to gain access to natural resources and technology.
"China's quest to enhance its world leadership status and America's effort to maintain its present position is a zero-sum game. It is the battle for people's hearts and minds that will determine who eventually prevails. And, as China's ancient philosophers predicted, the country that displays more humane authority will win."
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I'm still thinking about that excellent cartoon from The New Paper on Sunday (13 Nov) in which the Marina Bay Sands complex and the Gardens by the Bay's Flower Dome were melded to look like the Loch Ness monster. I found two pics online that must have served as the artist's inspiration:
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Incidentally, today marks my 365th posting!
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