Sunday, November 20, 2011

Something serious, something light...

The recent flurry of Asia-Pacific talkfests -- from APEC to the ASEAN-centred summits -- foreshadows a possible competition for influence in this region between the United States and China. I say "possible" because much of the intensity and quality of such a competition will depend on the "staying power" of the US.

Given the likelihood of a closely fought US presidential election in 2012, that it is possible the Republicans will come into power, and that nearly all in the current slate of GOP presidential wannabes are not internationalists (former Asia-based diplomat Jon Huntsman only has an outside chance), it is heartening to see President Obama push through a number of initiatives on his recent itinerary.

The decision to rotate US marines through northern Australia (Darwin) is one such strategic initiative that is within the cost calculus of the US, given its present economic circumstances.

Singapore, unlike Australia, is not a US treaty ally but it has been given the moniker "strategic partner". Indeed, since the 1990s, the US has been rotating -- not marines -- but a detachment of F-16 fighters through Singapore. Changi Naval Base is frequently visited by forward-deployed US aircraft-carrier strike groups.

The other key indicator of a close US-Singapore strategic nexus is the economic relationship. I'll let this article from Saturday's ST tell that story:

Singapore remains one of the most attractive destinations in the world for United States investors, said the country’s ambassador to Singapore, Mr David Adelman.

Mr Adelman told a panel discussion on the US-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that total foreign direct investment here from the US stood at US$106 billion (S$137 million) at the end of last year.

“That’s more than US business invested in China, nearly double that of Hong Kong, greater than all of Africa or the Middle East. Singapore remains one of the most attractive destinations in the world for US investors,” he said. The US-Singapore trade deal – the first signed by the US with an Asian country – came into force in 2004.

“Despite its small size and population, Singapore was America’s 13th largest trading partner and 10th largest export market in 2010, generating our fourth largest trade surplus,” said Mr Adelman.

He also pointed out that one of the most important recent developments in the global economy is that in the first quarter of last year, the US’ exports to Asia surpassed its exports to Europe for the first time.

“This is a trend that is not likely to reverse in our lifetimes,” he added. There are more than 2,000 American businesses operating here.

“While some of our FTAs with countries such as Chile, Bahrain and Morocco might have higher trade growth rates, these were accomplished from a much smaller baseline, and trading volumes with those countries are relatively small compared with Singapore,” noted Mr Adelman.

He pointed out that a more useful comparison for the US-Singapore FTA could be the one the US has with Australia.

"With Australia, US exports have grown 53 per cent since our FTA was implemented in 2005, while with Singapore-US exports have grown 76 per cent since our 2004 FTA implementation. Total trade volume with Australia has increased by 39 per cent whereas it has increased by 47 per cent with Singapore."

He described the US-Singapore FTA as America’s most successful bilateral deal.

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On a lighter note, I thought this cartoon by artist Lee Hup Kheng, in last Sunday's New Paper, is pretty good:

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