Tuesday, July 30, 2013

In politics, can a 'no' mean 'maybe'? Maybe not today but tomorrow?

It looks like the Chinese have said "no" to a summit with Japan (ST and Reuters, below). But in Asia, "no" can sometimes mean "maybe"...


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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/30/us-china-japan-summit-idUSBRE96T03520130730

China rules out Sino-Japanese summit: state media

Experts say the main sticking point to a Sino-Japanese summit is whether the two sides can find a way to set aside the row and focus on other aspects of relations between the world's second- and third-biggest economies.

China wants Japan first to acknowledge that a formal dispute exists, a step that Tokyo has rejected for fear it would undermine its claim to sovereignty of the isles, known as the Senkaku in Japan and the Diaoyu in China, the experts said.

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Some analysts have started wondering if there's more than meets the eye in the Japanese initiative:

America's 'Hidden Hand' in the Proposed Abe-Xi Summit

http://thediplomat.com/the-editor/2013/07/30/americas-hidden-hand-in-the-proposed-abe-xi-summit/

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It has been said that "politics is the art of the possible". Politics is also about who gets what, when, how. Being the "top dog" matters too:


So, politics exists when at least two people, two communities, two organisations, two countries, etc, interact. Coming back to China and Japan, the Chinese leaders know that sometimes it takes a "hardliner" from the other side to break an impasse (think Nixon and ping-pong diplomacy). Abe is as good as it gets for now. For the Japanese, China is ultimately the immovable (ie geographically permanent) neighbour next door (while it has not happened yet, one of Toyko's nightmares must surely be: "When someone asks you that nicely, how can you refuse?"). Economic benefits from mutual cooperation beckons. Japan also has to worry about its future relevance if it stays on its present course.

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On the issue of relevance in the dynamic ebb and flow of international politics, Liu Yi, a Chinese artist now living in Canada, titled one of his works "Beijing 2008". Try to visualise how the painting looks like from this (aurhor unidentified) textual interpretation of the work:

The work, titled “Beijing 2008”, depicts four young women playing Mahjong.

The woman with the tattoos on her back is China. On her left, focused intensely on the game, is Japan. Across from China, the one with the shirt and head cocked to the side is America. Lying on the floor is Russia. And the girl standing on the right is Taiwan.

Of China’s visible set of tiles “East Wind” has a dual meaning. First, it signifies China’s revival as a world power. Secondly, it signifies the military might and weaponry that China possesses and has already been placed on the table.

On one hand, China appears to be in a good position, though we cannot see the rest of her tiles. Additionally, she is also handling some hidden tiles below the table, behind her foot.

Russia appears to be uninterested in the game, but this is far from the truth. One foot hooks coyly at America, while her hand passes a hidden tile to China. Both countries can be said to be exchanging benefits in secret. Japan is concentrating on her tiles, oblivious to the actions of the others in her focused (self-absorbed?) state.

Taiwan wears a traditional red slip, symbolizing that she is the true heir of Chinese culture and civilization. In one hand, she has a bowl of fruit, and in the other, a paring knife. Her expression as she stares at China contains anger, sadness, and hatred. And perhaps frustration that she cannot play the game. No matter who ends up the victor, she is consigned to serving fruit.

Outside, the riverbank is darkened by storm clouds, suggesting the tension between the nations is dangerously explosive. The painting hanging on the wall depicts Mao’s face, but with Chiang Kai Shek’s bald head, and Sun Yat-Sen’s mustache.

The four women’s state of undress represent the geopolitical situation in each country relative to the others. China is naked on top, clothed with a skirt and underwear on the bottom. America wears a bra and a light jacket, but is naked on the bottom. Russia has only her underwear. Japan is naked.

At first glance, America appears to be well composed and seems to be a good position, as all the others are in various states of nakedness. However, while America may look radiant, her vulnerability has already been exposed. China and Russia may look naked, yet their key private parts remain hidden.

Assuming the play of the game requires that the loser of each hand removes pieces of clothing, if China loses, she will be in the same state as Russia (similar to when the USSR dissolved). If America loses, she will also be in the same state as Russia.

If Russia loses, she loses all that is left. Russia acts as if uninterested and unengaged, but in passing tiles to China, it is establishing a secret alliance. Japan has already lost everything, and will be out of the game if she loses again.

America may look well-positioned, but is in much danger. If she loses this round, she will give up her position as THE world power. Russia is playing both sides, much like what China once did -- leaning towards the USSR and then towards America; as she did not have the ability to survive on her own, she had to weave between both sides in order to survive and develop.

There are too many of China’s tiles that we cannot see. Perhaps suggesting that China has several hidden aces.

America appears confident, and is glancing at Taiwan, perhaps trying to read something in Taiwan’s face. Perhaps she sees what's going on between Russia and China.

Taiwan stares coldly at the game, longing to participate but constrained only to observe. She sees everything that the players are doing, and understands the shifting alliances. But she does not have the means or permission to join the game; she isn’t even given the right to speak. Even if she has a dearth of complaints, she cannot voice it to anyone; all she can do is to be a good page girl, and bring fresh fruit to the victor.

The positions of power are with China and America. But, while America appears dominant, the women are, after all, playing Chinese Mahjong, not Western Poker. In the end, playing by the rules of China’s game, how much chance at victory does America really have?

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Here's the intriguing artwork itself, from a blog titled The Enigma Chronicle:

http://enigmachronicle.com/2013/06/beijing-2008-a-painting-by-liu-yi/

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