Some ruminations on the coming general election

This general election is a watershed one, for various reasons, with one standing out.

I don't have the statistics but Gen Y voters -- those in their 20s, with the "cream" in university -- will, I think, be of such numbers that they will be wooed (they already are). They are also the Social Network generation, with all the implications that this entails. How will they vote?

I would think that, traditionally, there are:

* The die-hard PAP supporters who, I believe until now, make up at least 50 per cent of voters in most constituencies (whether GRCs or SMCs). The operative phrases here are "until now" and "most constituencies".
* The die-hard anti-PAP voters. How many per constituency? I think about 30 per cent in the past. The operative phrase here is "in the past".
* The clueless. I guess they will vote according to whoever in the family says they should! I hope this is an insignificant group.
* Last but not least, then, would be the swing voters. Is it accurate to assume that, in this year's election, many Gen Yers will be swing voters?

If we make that assumption, then a number of outcomes are possible:

* Where the PAP diehards still comprise at least 50 per cent, the constituency goes to the PAP. The conventional wisdom is that a freak election is unlikely, ie, most constituencies will be captured by the PAP.
* Where the PAP diehards are less than 50 per cent, the question is of course: by what percentage? The smaller this percentage, and assuming the diehard anti-PAPs are 20-30 per cent, it means the swing votes assume greater import. And if there are many Gen Y swing voters, such unpredictability increases.

This coming election is indeed about the future. The PAP has already indicated what that means: leadership renewal, investor confidence, a strong mandate to respond quickly to crises,etc. And while it has not said it welcomes a multi-party parliament (note my careful phrasing), a remark by minister George Yeo ("Internal solidarity crucial to Singapore," ST, 5 April, page A7) is noteworthy. He said: "It is important to have a credible opposition so that should the PAP turn corrupt or become flaccid... there's an alternative that Singaporeans can go for." Wow, from the words of a PAP leader!

The opposition too agrees that the polls will be about the future, so much so that Mr Chiam See Tong is prepared to leave his comfort zone and take on a GRC. Mr Low Thia Khiang is keeping his options close to his chest but if he too contests in a GRC -- going for broke -- the two opposition-held wards are "in danger" if personal aura has been a huge factor in Potong Pasir and Hougang.

There is of course the unpredictable Gen Y vote in these two wards, and in "hotly contested" GRCs for that matter.

The key issue then, I think, as far as the fate of the opposition is concerned, is whether the beginnings of a stable two-party system will emerge, not now, but in some future time. I don't see how a fractured opposition can survive in the long run here.

So,  I think all voters need to reflect on the stakes in this election. Gen Yers have to start asking questions -- all the "FAQ" questions they can think of -- of both the PAP and the opposition parties. I think no question is too stupid  to ask. It's not about LOL or ROTFLOL. As one sage said, "He who knows not, and knows he knows not, is simple. Teach him." Here, "simple" and "teach" are not used in a derisory sense but in a positive sense.

Gen Y is teachable, I believe.

Rucksack postscript: So, I was wrong, and the picture of the NSman and his maid carrying his rucksack for him was genuine, not staged. But I must commend MINDEF for being able to identify him (and her) from just a picture of their backs. Hmm, I've heard of face-recognition technology. But back (and backpack) recognition technology? Wow!