Smashing story, but does it stand the test of scrutiny?

I wish The Straits Times would consult experts familiar with military developments before it ran the sensational page one lead today (6 Jan) headlined "China's new arms could tilt balance of power".

It gives the impression that three of China's military developments are "game changers" with regard to American military power in the Pacific. The first, the J-20 fighter jet, although depicted as a prototype (that is, something still being tested, with its final parameters still undecided), is China's "first [fifth-generation] stealth fighter, the latest in a series of rapid military advancements recently which could affect the regional balance of power".

It adds, correctly, that the only production fifth-generation stealth fighter is the American F-22 Raptor.

What the article did not say is that the only real future challenger to the F-22 is the Russian-Indian joint project to develop a fifth-generation fighter. This one has not even reached the prototype stage! But given its pedigree, it is likely to be a credible aircraft. The layman may not fully grasp what is "fifth-generation" here but to oversimplify, it means an aircraft designed to evade radar detection, has sensors networked to other devices including those in its home and friendly bases, carries a large enough weapons punch within its belly (nothing sticking outside) and is able to fly on "super-cruise" (that is, at supersonic speed without having to switch on its fuel-guzzling afterburner boosters).

The Chinese J-20, experts agree, may not really be a match for the F-22. But that is beside the point. If it does its job as a strike fighter, well and good. But we don't know yet. Its Achilles Heel would be its engines. Chinese-made engines are just not good enough, so the J-20 may have to use Russian engines. That's holding a key defence project hostage to a foreign power's future goodwill. All these issues should be in the report for it to be accurate.

Next, the report refers to "rampart talk that China has put in place the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile system, designed to sink American aircraft carriers". This missile is the DF-21D. Again, the report is not sufficiently sceptical about the technical challenges faced in using a fairly large ballistic missile as an anti-ship guided weapon. Rest assured, it is not easy -- the Americans toyed with the idea and never tried it; the Cold War-era Soviet Union tried it but gave up. Above all, if the DF-21D is as good as advertised, why not prove it in a test to hit, say, a disused super-tanker which is a rough approximation of an American super-carrier?

Finally, the report refers to the "imminent deployment of the Chinese navy's first carrier" and goes on to say that "[f]ive of the American navy's 11 carriers are based in the Pacific and operate in international waters near China. They are within the DF-21D's range of about 1,500 km".

Military analysts will have a good laugh at all these claims.

My own Dec 5 article, hyperlinked below, indirectly addresses these issues.
http://admpreview.straitstimes.com:90/vgn-ext-templating/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=6172e0b8ad1bc210VgnVCM100000430a0a0aRCRD&vgnextchannel=3967758920e39010VgnVCM1000000a35010aRCRD

First, yes, when China unveils its first carrier, it will be a big event -- but not a game-changer. It is likely to be a medium-sized vessel, perhaps with a dozen or so aircraft on board, not the 90-odd aircraft that an American super-carrier can carry. Many navies already have medium-sized carriers. Also, numbers matter. The Chinese must build several carriers for them to be effective, because at any one time at least one of these complex vessels will be undergoing repairs, refit or maintenance. Yes, Chinese carriers will affect the regional dynamic but so long as American super-carriers are around, it will not be an apple vs apple situation.

Last point. It is misleading to say that five US carriers are based in the Pacific and operate in waters near China. The Pacific is a BIG body of water and only one US carrier is forward deployed in Japan, that is, close enough to China. One or two more may be homeported in the US' west coast but that's a long, long way from China. Perhaps one more may be exercising in the region, and perhaps close to China. And, apart from those assigned to the Atlantic and Mediterranean, a few will be in dry dock.

All these points will make the article less sensational but it will be more accurate. One day China may be a so-called "peer military competitor" of the US, but not yet.